Measured, not promised
Signal Track Record
Every dislocation episode is counted. We compare the alerts subscribers received with the near misses the threshold rejected, then measure whether each premium moved toward fair value.
Threshold test
Alerted vs rejected
Positive bps = moved toward fair value
| Horizon | Alerted · ≥150 bps | Rejected · 100–149 bps | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median | Mean | Converged | N | Median | Mean | Converged | N | |
| 15m | -1.5 | +2.4 | 22% | 9 | +19.0 | +27.2 | 84% | 556 |
| 1h | -1.0 | +6.7 | 38% | 8 | +43.0 | +41.7 | 90% | 522 |
| 6h | +56.4 | +47.1 | 83% | 6 | +56.7 | +51.5 | 93% | 428 |
Recent signals
Newest first · snapshot generated Oct 5, 1:33 AM UTC
| Time | Symbol | Premium at signal | Decision | 15m | 1h | 6h |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4m ago | AMD | oracle -108.1 bps perp -103.7 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 11m ago | ORCL | oracle -114.9 bps perp -88.2 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 15m ago | COIN | oracle -106.9 bps perp -117.5 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 8h ago | QQQ | oracle +103.7 bps perp — | Rejected | +0.0 | — pending | — pending |
| 2d ago | COIN | oracle +108.3 bps perp +106.9 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 2d ago | ORCL | oracle -115.0 bps perp -92.5 bps | Rejected | +10.6 | — pending | — pending |
| 2d ago | COIN | oracle -109.6 bps perp -123.0 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 2d ago | COIN | oracle -107.3 bps perp -130.4 bps | Rejected | +40.2 | — pending | — pending |
| 3d ago | COIN | oracle +110.0 bps perp +115.6 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 3d ago | MU | oracle -100.9 bps perp -106.1 bps | Rejected | +82.8 | — pending | — pending |
| 3d ago | AMD | oracle +105.1 bps perp +88.0 bps | Rejected | — pending | +66.0 | — pending |
| 3d ago | COIN | oracle -100.7 bps perp -109.7 bps | Rejected | +11.9 | +22.8 | — pending |
| 3d ago | GME | oracle +160.0 bps perp +158.3 bps | Alerted | +51.9 | — pending | — pending |
| 3d ago | GME | oracle +114.1 bps perp +127.3 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 3d ago | SNDK | oracle +107.1 bps perp +99.8 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 3d ago | AMD | oracle +108.4 bps perp +104.1 bps | Rejected | +2.5 | +49.7 | — pending |
| 4d ago | COIN | oracle +101.9 bps perp +119.5 bps | Rejected | +58.1 | +95.1 | — pending |
| 4d ago | COIN | oracle +115.0 bps perp +97.7 bps | Rejected | +13.0 | +108.1 | — pending |
| 4d ago | PLTR | oracle -101.3 bps perp -106.7 bps | Rejected | — pending | +68.3 | — pending |
| 4d ago | INTC | oracle +103.4 bps perp +93.9 bps | Rejected | +54.8 | — pending | — pending |
| 4d ago | AMD | oracle +104.9 bps perp +114.7 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 5d ago | COIN | oracle -100.2 bps perp -98.2 bps | Rejected | +1.9 | — pending | — pending |
| 5d ago | COIN | oracle -113.3 bps perp -116.0 bps | Rejected | — pending | +80.4 | — pending |
| 5d ago | AMD | oracle -105.5 bps perp -98.6 bps | Rejected | -0.0 | — pending | — pending |
| 5d ago | SNDK | oracle -113.6 bps perp -115.4 bps | Rejected | +4.4 | — pending | — pending |
| 5d ago | INTC | oracle -104.0 bps perp -112.1 bps | Rejected | +7.7 | — pending | — pending |
| 5d ago | SNDK | oracle -105.5 bps perp -102.8 bps | Rejected | — pending | +35.3 | +12.5 |
| 5d ago | MU | oracle -110.4 bps perp -110.3 bps | Rejected | +46.0 | +14.8 | — pending |
| 5d ago | PLTR | oracle +100.0 bps perp +88.4 bps | Rejected | +0.0 | — pending | +90.1 |
| 5d ago | PLTR | oracle +109.3 bps perp +114.0 bps | Rejected | — pending | +9.3 | +62.6 |
| 6d ago | PLTR | oracle +106.4 bps perp +117.0 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 6d ago | COIN | oracle -111.2 bps perp -98.3 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 6d ago | COIN | oracle +108.8 bps perp +109.3 bps | Rejected | — pending | +1.8 | — pending |
| 6d ago | ORCL | oracle +106.5 bps perp +139.5 bps | Rejected | — pending | +19.1 | — pending |
| 6d ago | SNDK | oracle +107.5 bps perp +85.1 bps | Rejected | — pending | +37.8 | — pending |
| 6d ago | GME | oracle +150.0 bps perp +141.1 bps | Rejected | — pending | — pending | — pending |
| 6d ago | MU | oracle +102.5 bps perp +95.7 bps | Rejected | — pending | +72.7 | — pending |
| 6d ago | AMD | oracle +103.9 bps perp +105.9 bps | Rejected | — pending | +9.5 | — pending |
| 6d ago | SNDK | oracle +102.4 bps perp +103.9 bps | Rejected | +0.1 | — pending | — pending |
| 6d ago | INTC | oracle +111.1 bps perp +112.3 bps | Rejected | +2.2 | — pending | — pending |
Methodology
A signal begins when the absolute oracle premium crosses 100 bps. We alert at 150 bps or more; candidates in the 100–149 bps band are rejected but still logged as the counterfactual baseline. At each horizon, converged_bps = |premium at signal| − |premium at horizon|. Positive means the token moved toward fair value; negative means it moved farther away. Pending windows are excluded from the summary sample size. The live-perp premium is shown for context, but episode thresholds and outcomes use the oracle premium.
Information, not a recommendation. Stock tokens are Reg S instruments and are not available to US persons. Nothing here is an offer.